LimitlessVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 50%
Qualità del mercato
30 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
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Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 minuto fa
25 ago 26, 12:25 UTC1 ott 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
- Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
2 piattaforme quotano attualmente questo mercato. La probabilità di riferimento ponderata per la liquidità di CoinRithm per Riferimento CoinRithm è del 1%. Le quotazioni differiscono di circa 49 punti percentuali tra le piattaforme più distanti.
Riferimento CoinRithm 1% · 2 piattaforme · 49 pt di scarto tra venue
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
- Limitless quota Yes al 50% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
- Limitless liquida questo mercato come segue: <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Dove altro è quotato Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket, Myriad.