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Dati al 8 set 2026, 21:05 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
August 31 50%
Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
25 ago 26, 14:01 UTC1 ott 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.
A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement.
- Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.
Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement.
- Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.
Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves.
- Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? · September 30 6%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date??
- Limitless quota August 31 al 50% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date??
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date??
- Limitless liquida questo mercato come segue: the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.</p><p><br></p><p>A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran.</p><p><br></p><p>A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p><br></p><p>All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met.
- Dove altro è quotato US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.