LimitlessVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativaAvviso sulla qualità dei datiPrezzo non significativo
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 11:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
August 31 50%In testa tra 4 esiti
August 31 50%Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
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Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 minuti fa
25 ago 26, 13:29 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
- Disponibile anche su Futuur — Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed by...? · December 31 18%
- Disponibile anche su Polymarket — Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31 17%