KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No 88%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
6,7 €
Liquidità
1,6K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
8.0% / 11.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
12 mag 26, 00:00 UTC8 gen 27, 13:29 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:FRED
- The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME.
- Revisions to previously published values will not be considered.
- The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession.
- A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi quota No al 88% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.