KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Above 0.5% 84%In testa tra 13 esiti
Qualità del mercato
29 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
0 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
8.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
6 ago 26, 22:00 UTC28 gen 31, 13:29 UTC
Trend
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Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US nominal GDP growth in 2036
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2035
KalshiUS nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the US be the largest economy by nominal gdp in 2052?
Manifold MarketsUS nominal GDP growth in 2033
KalshiRegole
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The Underlying is the 2030 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2030,” or its equivalent successor publication.
- The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA.
- Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US nominal GDP growth in 2030?
- Kalshi quota Above 0.5% al 84% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US nominal GDP growth in 2030?
- US nominal GDP growth in 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 28 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato US nominal GDP growth in 2030?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.