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Données au 1 sept. 2026, 20:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 9%-6.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
42 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
461,3 €
Liquidité
1,2 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
2
Variation 7j
-6.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard24 mars 26, 0:131 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt70%
- New People (NL)-1.0pt24%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 20,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 221,8 k €
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt24%
- October 31-2.0pt13%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt15%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.3pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume total
- 301,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 44,6 k €
POLYMARKETWill Russia enter Hannivka by which date?
- December 31+16.9pt98%
- September 30+39.0pt97%
- August 31-5.0pt0%
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt39%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.1pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Will Russia capture Sumy by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia capture Serhiivka by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote December 31 à 9% au 1 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia capture Serhiivka by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia capture Serhiivka by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Russia capture Serhiivka by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E in Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.