Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
32.5 pts (24h)Latin AmericaOne-OffWeather25j
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
United States 97%+32.5ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Qualité du marché
43 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
94,8 €
Liquidité
739,7 €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+56.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
31 août 26, 23:04 UTC4 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves to "Yes" if the the named outcome Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
- Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
- A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe.
- Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
- Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered.
- If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.