PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 90%-4.0pt
Qualité du marché
64 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
933,8 €
Liquidité
1,7 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
9.0% / 11.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
3
Variation 7j
+2.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
23 avr. 26, 22:25 UTC31 mars 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
- Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+5.0pt83.2%
- No change-5.0pt15.8%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 131,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 M €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+2.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 19,7 k €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.3%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.0%+1.0pt98%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.2%+8.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt99%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 87,2 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 655,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 k €
KALSHI2026: Trump's dream year?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- 499,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,6 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- Unemployment in September
- How many jobs added in September?
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour UK Recession in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 90% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand UK Recession in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- UK Recession in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2027.
- Comment UK Recession in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.