PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 94%+0.5pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
824,1 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
5.0% / 7.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
1
Variation 7j
-1.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
23 avr. 26, 22:20 UTC31 mars 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Recession this year?
KalshiUK Recession in 2026?
PolymarketUS recession by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 656,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 85,1 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 386 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,6 k €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,4 k €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Japan recession in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 94% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Japan recession in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Japan recession in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2027.
- Comment Japan recession in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.