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Données au 18 sept. 2026, 02:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
2028 17%
Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
2,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
8.0% / 14.0%
Écart
6.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
1
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
10 juin 26, 02:31 UTC1 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExSocial Security COLA for 2028
KalshiWill I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyKALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%98%
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt98%
- Above 3.3%98%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 266,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 76,4 k €
KALSHIUnemployment in September
- Above 3.8%+1.0pt98%
- Above 3.7%97%
- Above 3.9%+1.0pt92%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 93,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 157,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,3 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes-1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 3,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 12,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS recession by end of 2026?
- No+2.0pt90.1%
- Yes-2.0pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 12,1 k €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%+1.0pt98%
- Above 2.3%+5.0pt86%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI core in October
- CPI core in September
- Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- CPI in October
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US Nominal GDP in 2026
- China unemployment rate in September
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Social Security Insolvent by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote 2028 à 17% au 18 septembre 2026.
- Quand Social Security Insolvent by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Social Security Insolvent by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment Social Security Insolvent by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.