Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 54.4%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète28 juin 24, 16:48 UTC2 janv. 40, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if at any point before 2040 the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is unable to make timely payments due to insufficient reserves.
- This will resolve YES if OASI is restructured into a trust fund that's still recognizable colloquially as "social security," such as if it's combined with Social Security Disability Insurance, and if that restructured trust fund later becomes insolvent at any point before 2040.
- This does NOT resolve YES if social security checks are delayed not due insolvency, but due to logistical issues or legal issues unrelated to the trust fund's insolvency, such as a debt ceiling breach that halts government spending.
- This ONLY resolves YES if the trust fund actually runs out of money and is unable to pay out full benefits as a result.
- This includes scenarios where social security benefits are paid out in full, but through debt rather than the trust fund, or through some other means to replace the gap left by the trust fund's insolvency.
- It also includes scenarios such as the one where, by as-of 2024 law, benefits are cut across the board by 20% if the trust fund is unable to provide 100%, but the trust fund is able to maintain benefits at that reduced level.
