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Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 16:52 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
June 30 72%
June 30 72%Qualité du marché
10 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
1,2 €
Liquidité
331,2 €
Faible liquiditéIntérêt ouvert
1,4 $US
Achat / Vente
13.0% / 72.0%
Écart
59.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète23 oct. 26, 21:52 UTC1 juil. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
June 3072%
December 3127%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
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Manifold MarketsActifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://startupfortune.com/marathon-fusion-says-it-turned-mercury-into-gold-no-proof-yet/) Marathon Fusion's paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Driven by Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Neutrons" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13461) projects gold production of approximately 2 tonnes per gigawatt of thermal fusion power per year, based on neutron transport simulations.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the measured gold yield of a Marathon Fusion mercury-to-gold experiment is confirmed to be within 20% of the yield predicted for that experiment by Marathon Fusion's neutronics simulation, through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying experiment is one in which stable gold-197 is produced from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators).
- The predicted yield is the number of gold-197 atoms that Marathon Fusion's neutron transport simulation (e.g., OpenMC) calculates for that specific experimental configuration, including its neutron source output, irradiation duration, target geometry, and mercury isotopic composition.
- The predicted yield must be publicly disclosed by Marathon Fusion or included in the publication or confirmation under consideration.
