PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 99%-0.1pt
Qualité du marché
65 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
20,9 €
Liquidité
17,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
0.7% / 2.2%
Écart
1.5 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
10
Variation 7j
+0.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
7 déc. 25, 23:21 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
EU dissolves in ?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketOPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketNATO dissolves by 2028
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
- 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
- EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.7pt20%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 865,3 k €
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.5pt96%
- Yes+0.5pt4%
- Volume total
- 36,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 466,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.1pt54.5%
- October 31-3.5pt30.9%
- September 30-2.0pt11.8%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt21%
- October 31-4.5pt13%
- September 30-1.6pt4%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Volume total
- 58 M €
- Volume 24h
- 136,9 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour EU dissolves before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 99% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand EU dissolves before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- EU dissolves before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment EU dissolves before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.