Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 53.1%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète17 août 25, 10:40 UTC30 mars 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government revert cannabis legalization in the next 4 years?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketEU dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 53% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? sera-t-il résolu ?
- The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? doit être résolu le 30 mars 2029.
- Comment The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria