Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 16:09 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.4%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
17 août 25, 10:40 UTC30 mars 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government revert cannabis legalization in the next 4 years?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government raise the sales tax before the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsNATO dissolves before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
