Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète24 mars 25, 15:41 UTC24 mars 35, 15:34 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
Manifold Markets2026 World GDP Growth
PolymarketCPI in October
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if the world GDP grows by an order of magnitude (10x increase) within a 10-year period from market creation.
- It will resolve to "No" if:
- There is insufficient growth for the world GDP to have at least doubled by the end of the 10-year period, OR
- At the end of the 10-year period, the world GDP has not increased by a factor of 10 from its starting value.
- An order of magnitude increase means the world GDP would need to grow by a factor of 10 (1000%).