Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?
CryptoOne-OffMacro et économieÉconomie4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.5%
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18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 26, 20:06 UTC31 mars 31, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.
- The condition that real GDP reaches a new peak level is to ensure that recovery from a recession does not trigger positive resolution.
- For example, if the GDP series was [1.0, 0.85, 1.02] this question would not resolve positively, because the greatest growth over the sequence was only 2% as measured from a prior peak.
- This question will rely on credible estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in case there is uncertainty over whether real GDP grew by at least 10%, will wait until a final report is obtained.
- If the BEA is not active during resolution, or does not publish a relevant report, another credible source will be chosen at my sole discretion.