Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète6 août 26, 13:07 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia recognize the independence of Transnistria in 2026?
FutuurWhen will NATO dissolve?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR, commonly known as Transnistria) ceases to exist as a de facto independent breakaway state.
- This condition will be met if any of the following events occur:
- The de facto authorities in Tiraspol formally agree to dissolve their parallel state structures and fully reintegrate into the legal, fiscal, and administrative framework of the Republic of Moldova, with Chisinau assuming complete administrative and security control over the region.
- The de facto government and military/security forces of the PMR are disbanded, surrendered, or removed, and no successor breakaway administration maintains de facto control over the territory.
- The territory is officially annexed or absorbed by another internationally recognized state (such as the Russian Federation) and ceases to operate under its own self-proclaimed independent authority.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria