Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.8%
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11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 26, 02:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 20:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
What counts as "fighting"?
- - Clashes between organized armed groups using military weapons (Automatic rifles, machine guns, rockets, armored vehicles, etc.).
- - Example: Prigozhin’s 2023 rebellion in Rostov (seizing military sites, clashes with border guards).
- - Does NOT count:
- - Terrorist attacks targeting civilians (e.g., Crocus City Hall).
- - Arson, sabotage, or protests **unless** the group:
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : What counts as "fighting"?