Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a nuclear war before 2100? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 53% au 1 novembre 2026.

Quand Will there be a nuclear war before 2100? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.

Comment Will there be a nuclear war before 2100? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if nuclear weapons used in a conflict kill over 10 million people.

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Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

GéopolitiqueOne-Off

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 53%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes

19 déc. 23, 09:24 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Will there be a nuclear war in the next 50 years?

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Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

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If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who?

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Polymarket

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

Polymarket

Règles

Resolves yes if nuclear weapons used in a conflict kill over 10 million people.

Resolves no if not resolved yes by 2100

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Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

Marchés ouverts

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

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Questions fréquentes

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Marchés ouverts

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by which date?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?