Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète24 juin 23, 22:48 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a nuclear war before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2100.
- If we are not still around, then the resolution is up to whatever intelligent non-human beings, if any, exist in our wake.
- Hopefully, they will resolve it correctly based on whether or not it was nuclear war that did us in.