Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard15 oct. 23, 11:07 UTC1 janv. 35, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Venus must occur within a distance of no more than 10 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v (this question)
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.