Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78.4%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète1 janv. 24, 20:59 UTC1 mars 75, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2075.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Venus must occur within a distance of no more than 10 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285
- @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2075.
- Comment Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2075.