Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?
One-OffGéopolitiqueRussia / UkraineLatin America3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.6%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète11 sept. 23, 18:41 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
Manifold MarketsWill a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
In the modern era, seven countries (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have made official territorial claims on part of Antartica.
- These claims are not widely recognized and the Antarctic treaty, which is widely ratified, forbids new claims.
- While the US and Russia have ratified the treaty, they have also reserved the right to make a territorial claim.
- And beside, treaties can be exited or disregarded.
- Official claim, by the country governeming body
- Antarctica "mainland", not islands or oceanic shelves (by themselves, could be part of the claim)
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In the modern era, seven countries (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have made official territorial claims on part of Antartica.