Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.3%
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91
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 nov. 23, 23:29 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiWhich public figures will declare they believe aliens have been hidden by the US government?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiRègles
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of OpenAI or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
