Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.2%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète12 juin 24, 19:30 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiWill Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiRègles
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
