Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.1%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète14 juil. 23, 20:55 UTC31 déc. 29, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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KalshiRègles
They don't have to actually declassify *everything* to resolve YES.
- It's enough that they make some substantial declassifications and do it in a way that seems intended to give the impression that they are "declassifying everything".
- Redactions are fine, national security exceptions are fine, this is ultimately more about political perception than reality.
- If a presidential candidate pledges to declassify everything and then on winning election does some significant declassifications in a way that seems intended to fulfill that campaign promise that would presumptively resolve YES.
- In case of ambiguity I may resolve to market IF I think the market price seems reasonable and not an artifact of manipulation or poor liquidity.
- Otherwise I will just make my own best judgement.