Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.7%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète1 juin 25, 23:50 UTC1 janv. 50, 00:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issues a final, legally binding judgment determining that the Russian Federation committed genocide, as defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
- The resolution will be based on official ICJ publications or reputable news sources reporting on the ICJ's final decision.
- If no such determination is made by the ICJ, the market will resolve to "No."
- The Genocide Convention, adopted in 1948, defines genocide and obligates signatory states to prevent and punish genocide, acts of genocide, incitement to genocide, and so on.
- Ukraine initiated proceedings against Russia at the ICJ after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2050.
- Comment Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria