Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 03:24 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.8%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard8 sept. 24, 01:51 UTC1 janv. 27, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRègles
Elon Musk has stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2026:
- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833?t=vksvLiovvh5ZD-XvdX5V0w&s=19
- Market resolves YES if successful crewed or uncrewed launches happen before 1 January 2027 and NO otherwise