Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Starship 55%
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 24, 14:14 UTC2 janv. 35, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Canada have high-speed rail by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWhich is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
Manifold MarketsWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
PolymarketRègles
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Starship à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2035.
- Comment Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.