Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Starship 55%
Starship 55%Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 55 minutes
En retard23 sept. 24, 14:14 UTC2 janv. 35, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a plan to connect Liverpool to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada have high-speed rail by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam approve the construction of a Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City high-speed rail project before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
