Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.8%
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11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard7 sept. 24, 23:13 UTC2 juil. 27, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Man City to face transfer restriction by 2027 summer transfer window?
PolymarketWill there be any mission that makes it to Mars during the 2026-27 Hohmann transfer window?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many spacecraft will successfully make it to Mars during the 2028-29 Hohmann Transfer window?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
- These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars.
- If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
- Will the first part of this tweet happen?
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves Yes if at least one Starship is plausibly sent to Mars (does not require a landing attempt).
