Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète7 sept. 24, 23:13 UTC2 juil. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Manifold MarketsWill two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
KalshiTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
- These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars.
- If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
- Will the first part of this tweet happen?
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves Yes if at least one Starship is plausibly sent to Mars (does not require a landing attempt).
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? doit être résolu le 2 juillet 2027.
- Comment Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.