Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 95.4%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
12 juil. 26, 18:40 UTC31 déc. 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the first AI-driven computation (inference run) that successfully solves one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is publicly documented or estimated to have cost over $1,000,000 USD in compute resource for inference.
- It resolves to NO if the first successful AI solver's run costs $1,000,000 USD or less, or if the first verified solution is found by a human without the direct output of an AI inference system.
- Definitions and Details:
- Millennium Prize Problems: The six remaining unsolved problems designated by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI):
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2040.
- Comment Will the first run that solves a Millennium Prize Problem cost over $1M in inference compute est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria