Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.4%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 43 minutes
3 juil. 26, 17:18 UTC3 juil. 27, 17:15 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is Alex going to resolve his market about Russia's drone attack on Poland fairly?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurUnited States to attack North Korea in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
https://archive.is/BkISd
- Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
- Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission
- Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones
- A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses
- Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? doit être résolu le 3 juillet 2027.
- Comment Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://archive.is/BkISd