Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 24, 17:24 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
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PolymarketRègles
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
- The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
- A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
- The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.