Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlectionMiddle East2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 90.7%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète12 mars 26, 20:05 UTC20 janv. 29, 20:49 UTC
Tendances
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FutuurRègles
This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.
- If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes.
- This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada).
- In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie.
- CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing.
- This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.