Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94.2%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète24 mai 24, 02:22 UTC1 juil. 28, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
Manifold MarketsWho Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRègles
He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group.
- It doesn't have to be large but it has to be that kind of group
- I am a Christian
- I am a daoist
- I believe in Mormonism
- I have started a new religious group which I lead, the reincarnationizers
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 doit être résolu le 1 juillet 2028.
- Comment Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : He must publicly state something like "I am a X" where X is the name of a religious or mystical group.