Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90%
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète10 févr. 24, 13:15 UTC31 déc. 26, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRègles
If someone/something manages to manipulate the ASI to proclaim Christianity to be true, that won't count.
- It has to arrive at the conclusion freely.
- A minimum requirement is that it must come to the conclusion that Jesus performed genuine miracles -- although proclaiming Christianity to be true will involve more than just that.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- 225,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 157 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 348,3 k €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If someone/something manages to manipulate the ASI to proclaim Christianity to be true, that won't count.