Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 16:27 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?
Manifold MarketsWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRègles
If Alex O'Connor (host of the podcast Within Reason) publicly comes around and seriously identifies himself as a Christian before 2027, this will resolve YES.
- Otherwise resolves NO on Jan 1. 2027.
Marchés ouverts
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume total
- 56,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 9,2 k €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 118 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volume total
- 797,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 674,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume total
- 3,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Alex O'Connor (host of the podcast Within Reason) publicly comes around and seriously identifies himself as a Christian before 2027, this will resolve YES.