Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.8%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète25 nov. 24, 19:03 UTC31 déc. 99, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.
- For reference, this would be 31% as of 2024.
- Resolves NA if human civilization ends before then.
Marchés ouverts
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume total
- 56,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 9,2 k €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 118 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volume total
- 797,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 674,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volume total
- 3,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2099.
- Comment What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.