Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
One-OffBusiness & Corporate9aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 77.8%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète2 oct. 25, 16:20 UTC2 oct. 35, 16:19 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.
- Resolves NO if this does not happen after 10 years.
- Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 7-day window starts after notification: The 7 days begin once Robin Hanson is notified of the report; if he does not contradict within that period, it counts.
- Obvious abuse/false reports may be ignored: The creator may use discretion to disregard clearly dishonest or spammy repeated claims.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "turned down": A request to talk about prediction markets that is declined because the requester primarily wants to discuss their own grand theory (rather than genuinely discuss prediction markets) does NOT count as being "turned down" for purposes of this market's resolution.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? doit être résolu le 2 octobre 2035.
- Comment Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.