Will penalties for NATO countries not meeting the 2% of GDP spending target be put in place before the end of 2028?
ÉconomieGéopolitiqueOne-OffPolitique commercialePolitique américaineEurope2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.4%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard15 févr. 24, 01:13 UTC1 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will NATO countries clash with each other by which date?
PolymarketWhat security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?
Manifold MarketsWill "Anthropic is (probably) not meeting its RSP s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsThese countries do not allow visitors with a felony conviction. Which will Trump travel to during his current term?
Manifold MarketsMearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
A Trump advisor has suggested penalizing NATO members who do not meet the commitment to spending at least 2% of their GDP on their military.
- This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2028, an official policy is made by any NATO country that specifically penalizes all of the other NATO members who do not meet the 2% spending target.
- Examples of penalties that would resolve this market to YES include (but are not limited to):
- Losing Article 5 protections
- Trade tariffs
- Losing access to shared military equipment
