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Données au 1 sept. 2026, 18:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 95%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
27,1 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
4.8% / 6.1%
Écart
1.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
6
Variation 7j
+1.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète23 janv. 26, 22:301 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 95% au 1 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.