Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
BitcoinOne-OffÉconomieMacro et économieFedMemecoinPolitique commercialeÉchecsChineSportEuropePolitique américaine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.9%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète12 févr. 26, 09:21 UTC1 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
Manifold MarketsUS officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares that the US economy entered a recession at any point during 2026, OR if two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are recorded in 2026.
- Key context:
- Tariff escalation with China, EU, and other trading partners is creating economic uncertainty
- Federal spending cuts from DOGE are reducing government contribution to GDP
- Bitcoin and equity markets have experienced significant corrections in early 2026
- Unemployment has ticked up from 4.0% to 4.3%
