Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99.3%
Prévisionnistes
169
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète19 févr. 24, 08:51 UTC1 janv. 27, 08:45 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025.
- Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025.