Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
FedOne-OffCommoditiesChinaBusiness & Corporate1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 61.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:53 UTC31 mai 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
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Manifold MarketsWill Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Norsk Hydro is the largest primary aluminum producer in Europe, with smelters at Karmøy, Sunndal, Husnes, Årdal, Høyanger, and the joint-venture Qatalum (Qatar) and Slovalco (Slovakia, idled).
- Total primary aluminum production capacity is roughly 2 Mt/yr, mostly hydropower-fed. 2024 output stayed near capacity.
- The 2.0 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the run-rate without new investment.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
Marchés ouverts
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt45%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 33,3 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt47.8%
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt46.8%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No86%
- Yes+3.8pt14%
- Volume total
- 995,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,4 k €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.3pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2028.
- Comment Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes.