Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
Opérations sur titresOne-OffMatières premièresRussie / UkraineChine1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 58.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:53 UTC31 mai 28, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExRègles
This market resolves YES if Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 – December 31, 2027) exceeds 3.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2027 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Rio Tinto is the largest non-China non-Russia primary aluminum producer. 2024 actual production was 3.3 Mt (+1% YoY) following the Kitimat ramp-up and the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) Tiwai Point 20-year power deal plus Sumitomo buyout taking NZAS to 100% Rio ownership.
- The 3.4 Mt strike for 2027 reflects the post-ramp run-rate.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Rio Tinto quarterly production results and annual report https://www.riotinto.com/en/invest/financial-news-performance/quarterly-production-results
