Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.9%
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 03:19 UTC1 janv. 27, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?
Manifold MarketsAI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).
- However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.
- Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The METR blog post from 2026-02-24 (uplift update) does not count as a qualifying study for this market, as the creator considers it an update on research direction rather than a full study.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).