Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.3%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 nov. 25, 05:26 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.
- --- With the advent of AI most view that cloud spending will increase.
- However AI might also optimize existing system (including itself) and there is heavy research into reducing the cost (in terms of compute and energy) of existing AI systems.
- On the other side, even if the spending is reduced it could cause a Jevons Paradox in terms of more compute being used but will that compute be local or cloud-based?
- This market will resolve Yes if services like AWS, Azure, GCP, etc start to shrink in terms of revenue/net sales according to sources.
- Specifically two or more of the services have to collectively be shrinking for three quarters in a row.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment AI reduces public cloud spending by end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a fix for other market with same name but the name implied the opposite of the resolution criteria in the description.