Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 86.6%
Prévisionnistes
82
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète26 déc. 23, 22:37 UTC1 janv. 32, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I find AI hurts my job opportunities as an accountant before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
I work as a software engineer.
- A lot of my specialization is in being able to write good code, but AI has been getting better and better at that lately.
- I hope I maybe have a backup as working on AI because logically speaking it seems like AI research would be the "last job to get automated", but I also know a lot of non-AI coding, e.g. backend development, frontend development, programming language theory, data science, etc., and these skills might get obsoleted by AI.
- I'm not really good at ops work so I'm not counting that.
- Resolution criterion: If I subjectively feel that my opportunities for coding jobs have become worse due to AI, for at least 6 months duration starting before 2032, this market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2032.
- Comment Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I work as a software engineer.