Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.5%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 sept. 23, 07:11 UTC1 janv. 35, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This question resolves YES if Wikipedia or similar mainstream sources of scientific information to a general audience say that there is currently microscopic life on Venus that is living independently of human support.
- This will still resolve YES if the life is a result of human contamination.
- This is largely because I think there is a non-negligible probability that if we do discover life in this timeframe we will not be able to discern if it is from human contamination or not.
- Human support means that the life's continued survival on venus requires in some way resources provided by humans; this does not need to have happened intentionally.
- So microbes surviving on a probe or remnants of a probe would not count, for example.
