Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète14 oct. 25, 15:25 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?
Manifold MarketsIndia strike on Pakistan by which date?
PolymarketWill Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.
- Islamist groups include organizations like Hamas.
- Currently, Tehreek-e-Labbaik is noted as the only major Islamist political party in Pakistan (less extreme than Hamas).
- Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tehreek-e-Labbaik is a small constituent of a parliamentary coalition of mostly non-islamist parties, that will not count as an islamist takeover.
- Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be delegated to ChatGPT (or Gemini if ChatGPT no longer exists in 2035) to determine whether a group/individual qualifies as Islamist.
- Asim Munir has been ruled to not count as an Islamist for resolution purposes.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2034.
- Comment Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.